CAPE

Shiller CAPE Live

Real-Time Cyclically Adjusted Price-to-Earnings (P/E 10)

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Current Shiller CAPE i Cyclically Adjusted P/E (CAPE)

Developed by Nobel laureate Robert Shiller. Measures market price relative to the 10-year inflation-adjusted real earnings average (CPI-U), smoothing out temporary business cycle fluctuations.

Investopedia Guide → Calculating...
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--% All-time percentile rank i Historical Percentile Rank

The percentage of all historical monthly records since January 1881 that had a CAPE lower than today's level. Values above 95% signify historically extreme market valuations.

Yale Shiller Dataset →
S&P 500 Index Price i S&P 500 (^GSPC)

Real-time index quote representing the 500 largest publicly traded corporations in the United States by market capitalization.

S&P Global Overview →
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10-Yr Real Earnings (E10) i 10-Year Real Average Earnings (E10)

The denominator in Shiller's equation. The arithmetic mean of trailing 120 months of GAAP earnings, each restated in today's dollars via the Consumer Price Index (CPI-U).

Shiller Methodology →
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Inflation-adjusted base
CAPE Earnings Yield i Implied CAPE Earnings Yield

Calculated as (1 / CAPE) × 100. Inverts the price multiple into a percentage yield, reflecting normalized annual company earnings per dollar invested.

Earnings Yield Concept →
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Implied return (1 / CAPE)
Excess CAPE Yield i Excess CAPE Yield (ECY)

Introduced by Robert Shiller in 2020: CAPE Earnings Yield minus the 10-Year US Treasury yield. Indicates whether stocks offer an attractive risk premium over risk-free bonds.

NBER Research Paper →
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vs 10Y US Treasury (--%)
Valuation Zone Meter i Historical Valuation Zones

Categorizes market valuations based on 140+ years of distribution: Cheap (<15), Normal (15–22), Elevated (22–30), Expensive (30–38), and Historically Extreme (>38).

Irrational Exuberance →
Cheap <15 Normal 15-22 Elevated 22-30 Bubble >38

The S&P 500 is in the upper historical distribution, significantly above the 140-year median.

Historical Shiller CAPE Ratio (1881 – Present)

Monthly cyclically adjusted P/E smoothed over 10-year rolling real earnings.

1929
Black Tuesday Peak
CAPE: 32.56
1982
Generational Trough
CAPE: 6.64
2000
Dot-Com Bubble Peak
CAPE: 44.19 (Record)
2009
GFC Market Bottom
CAPE: 13.32
CURRENT
Live Valuation
CAPE: ~41.1
Historical Valuation Benchmarks i Long-Term Benchmarks (1881–Present)

Computed from Robert Shiller's official monthly dataset spanning over 140 years of market history across secular bull and bear cycles.

FRED Shiller PE Series →
Historical Mean
17.79
All-time average (1881–Present)
Historical Median
16.61
50th percentile market baseline
Modern Era Mean
27.32
Post-1990 baseline
All-Time Range
4.78 – 44.19
Low (1920) to High (1999)
Frequently Asked Questions & Methodology Robert Shiller Methodology Guide
What is the current Shiller CAPE Ratio for the S&P 500?

The Shiller CAPE Ratio (Cyclically Adjusted Price-to-Earnings, also known as P/E 10) measures the current S&P 500 price divided by the 10-year arithmetic average of inflation-adjusted real earnings (E10). ShillerCAPE.com updates this metric hourly with real-time market quotes and Yale historical reconciliations.

What is considered a normal or historical average Shiller PE ratio?

Over the 145+ years since 1881, the historical mean Shiller CAPE is approximately 17.8 and the historical median is approximately 16.6. Values below 15 represent historically cheap equity valuations, while values exceeding 30 to 38 represent historically extreme market valuations (such as the 1929 peak at 32.6, the 1999–2000 Dot-com peak at 44.2, and current market regimes).

What is Excess CAPE Yield (ECY)?

Introduced by Nobel Laureate Robert Shiller in 2020, the Excess CAPE Yield (ECY) is calculated as the Implied CAPE Earnings Yield (1 / CAPE × 100) minus the 10-Year US Treasury yield. It reflects the expected real equity risk premium of stocks over risk-free government bonds.